The Ascend Letter

Planning Corner: Failing to Prepare or Preparing to Fail?

Ask the fittest person at your gym what they are eating tomorrow. They will not guess. They will tell you exactly, every meal, down to the weight of each item.

I could do it right now. Meal one: 70g raspberries, two scoops of protein, 10oz spinach, half a tablespoon of almond butter, a quarter teaspoon of salt. That is one of six. I will spare you the rest.

Ask them what they are training this week and you get the same thing. Every split, every set, every rep, already mapped out.

Again, I would tell you I start with 3 sets of....you get the point right?

That is not obsession. It is preparation. Great results are the consequence of a great plan. You cannot be upset about the results you did not get from the work you did not do.

Preparation and execution are the two pillars. Some people are naturally good at both with their money. Some are not. And that is okay.

Here is how I see my job as a financial advisor. I'm not here to judge how you spend or how much risk you take. That is your life to live. My job is to look at your situation objectively and tactically, help you make better decisions, and then help you execute them.

Because the goal is to have the plan built before life throws the curveball, not after. When the market drops or the surprise bill hits, the prepared person already knows what to do. The unprepared one makes an emotional decision and pays for it later.

So this week's ask, build the plan while it is calm. Then when there is chaos, you can just execute.

The Macro

Inflation finally cooperated. July CPI and PPI both came in cooler than expected, the second straight month of tame readings. That is exactly what Fed Chair Warsh wanted to see. It gives the Fed room to keep holding rates and let the long end of the bond market do the cooling on its own.

Well the market noticed and the odds of a September rate hike fell hard. Traders are still betting on a hike by year end but I'm not. I sit in the camp that says the Fed holds through this year, maybe even cuts, and cuts for sure in 2027.

Why? If we strip out the Middle East conflict and the jolt it gave headline inflation, core inflation has stayed relatively calm. Add a labor market that is clearly softening, and at a 4.1% unemployment rate, I do not see what pushes this Fed to hike.

Here is what I'm watching. Tech's leadership over the rest of the market has run into its 50 day moving average and the top of a range channel (both possibly act as resistance). Under the surface, the money is starting to move. The average stock is beating the headline index, small caps are outrunning the S&P 500 this year, and financials, healthcare, and defensives are quietly picking up the baton from the crowded AI race. This whole AI rally off the July lows has the feel of a dead cat bounce, especially in a midterm year when seasonality tends to get choppy. Then again, everything can be different with AI. So stay vigilant.